Champions League 2024/25: Why it matters where each team finishes in the league phase table and the knockout round impact

We are in the home straight of the new league phase of the Champions League - with the five British teams looking to accomplish different feats in the new format.

Liverpool do not seem to mind the new 36-team league format - they have won each of their opening six games so far without conceding a goal. Eighteen points has all but guaranteed them a top-eight finish, which secures a place in the last-16 of the knockout rounds.

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But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team? No, not until top spot is secured. That is because there is an incentive to keep winning as every single finishing place matters in this new Champions League format.

Read below to see all the permutations regarding the rest of the new Champions League structure and what British teams need to do to qualify...

What are the permutations for British teams in the last two games?

Mathematically, Liverpool need just one point to guarantee their place in the last-16 and by-pass the play-off round. A win against Lille on Tuesday, January 21 would see them needing a point in their final game to top the Champions League table.

Both Arsenal and Aston Villa are level on 13 points and sit inside the top eight in third and fifth respectively. They will likely need to win their final two games to ensure they go straight into the round of 16 as a top-eight finisher.

It will take a lot to swing in Man City and Celtic's favour for them to finish in the top eight, but both are currently holding knockout places.

Celtic sit a place and a point above Man City in 21st place. Pep Guardiola's side are a point above the places that send teams out of the Champions League altogether.

One win from their final two games could be enough to secure their play-off round place, but they will want to win both matches to ensure they remain in the competition. The play-off rounds take place on February 11/12 and February 18/19.

Who qualifies out of the league phase?

To achieve automatic qualification into the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.

Those in ninth to 24th enter a round of two-legged play-offs in February, with the winners taking the other eight spots in the last 16.

Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so will have the second leg at home. Those from 17th to 24th will be unseeded, so have the first leg at home.

Teams that finish anywhere from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from this season's competition, with no access to the Europa League.

Ok, but if we're in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?

Yes it does. The way the Champions League league phase works is the final league position gives you a specific route - and specific opponents - in the knockout stage draw.

The below graphic shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds are decided by the league phase - with no separate draws for the last-16, quarter-finals and beyond.

For example, the teams who finish first or second in the league phase will face a team who finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Compare that to the team who finishes in seventh or eighth, who could play a team who finishes in 23rd or 24th but also run the risk of facing the team in ninth or 10th spot - which could be a major European outfit.

The advantage for the team finishing first or second is they will guarantee playing a team in the 'middle' of the final Champions League table. Finishing lower down runs the risk of playing a better side.

Is it really an advantage to finish top?

Not necessarily. Particularly this season.

The early struggles of teams such as Real Madrid, Man City and Paris Saint-Germain mean a top European side could end up in the "middle" of the Champions League table - thereby coming up against one of the best performing sides.

Currently, Liverpool are top of the league phase table - but the teams who began this gameweek in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Benfica, Monaco, Sporting CP and Feyenoord - with PSG, Real Madrid and Man City below those teams in the table.

So if top teams continue to not do as well as expected in the league phase, it could create some blockbuster last-16 ties, thereby taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible spots.

Is there a difference between finishing ninth and 24th?

Again, yes. A big one. And it's all to do with the play-offs.

The new Champions League format means the team that finishes ninth faces the team in 24th in the play-off round. Tenth plays 23rd, 11th plays 22nd and so on.

So if you just miss out on a top-eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst-performing sides that qualified from the league phase. So the higher you finish, the 'easier' game you get.

But again, if teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league phase, you could have top sides meeting each other in the play-off rounds.

Who are the supercomputer's Champions League favourites?

Liverpool are currently the favourites to win the Champions League, with Slot's side given a 20 per cent chance of winning the trophy in Munich after a stellar start to the season.

Arsenal are third favourites with 13.2 per cent - just ahead of Pep Guardiola's Man City - fourth favourites on 9.3 per cent.

Inter Milan are second favourites on 15.8 per cent - with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting Lisbon making up the top 10.

Aston Villa have a 0.6 per cent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic on 0.3 per cent.

When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?

• Knockout round play-offs: February 11/12 and February 18/19, 2025
• Round of 16: March 4/5 and March 11/12, 2025
• Quarter-finals: April 8/9 and April 15/16, 2025
• Semi-finals: April 29/30 and May 6/7, 2025
• Final: May 31, 2025

Where is the Champions League final being held in 2025?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.

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